Monday, May 10, 2010

afternoon update

Indeed the severe weather risk areas migrate towards SW KS in advance of the surface low. Per my thinking in the previous post, storm initiation is indeed being forecast earlier. The dryline is really beefing up with dew points dropping down to near 10 F and surface winds sustained to nearly 35-40 mph with gusts to 50-60.

Current sat trends indicate multiple "cloud streets" though not of the fine scale variety behind the dry line. This indicates to me that low precip supercells may be the initial mode, however the speed at which the shortwave is progressing suggests that by the time CI does occur, they may be right in the moisture plume which argues against the low precip mode.

However, the linear banding of the cloud features at this point points to a more linear development mode. One wonders if this early convection, if it gets going, will be round 1 followed by round 2 of supercells later in the afternoon. Still more cloud lines popping up now near rthe dryline at 1715 UTC.

Waiting for 18 UTC sounding for DDC...maybe another hour or so before it appears on line if they launched at 1710 UTC like I hope they did. I also expect one from AMA at 18 or 21 UTC and one at OUN at 20 or 21 UTC. Hopefully the ARM site at LMN will also launch a few.

Dryline just went by Liberal KS, 82 over 45 this hour, was 75 over 59. Interesting that the dryline appears to be making north easterly gains into KS but not strong easterly surges in the panhandle ... recent trends indicate it is moving but not as fast further to the south. Will have to watch the progression.

Max dewpoints in OK up to 68 in the south, still holding strong at 65 in the plume to the north.

CI iminent along a line from the TX-OK border North to DDC in the next hour and a half over the OK panhandle.