Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Simulated Lake Effect Nov 18

Below is an animated gif of the NSSL-WRF forecast from Nov 18, 2014 at 0000 UTC of the 0-3km Updraft helicity (hourly max) during the Lake effect snow event. 

Saturday, November 22, 2014

What is a test bed?

The formal definition from wikipedia: "A platform for experimentation of large development projects."

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Oct 13 Verification

Here is the promised update to my experimental graphics, though reports are still trickling in as surveys are completed. When I ran my code last Tuesday not all of these reports were accounted for. Remember that I have a modeling slant to present. Below are two versions of verification (all reports including damage, and one where we stick to reports that meet formal severe criteria).

Monday, October 13, 2014

October 13th Severe Event

As of 915pm, storm reports pretty much show a hole in the MDT issued at 06Z which was focused on wind and sig wind. A comparison of the categorical outlook and the SSEO forecast I generate using UH tracks, showed a few interesting things: