Sunday, June 29, 2008

perspective

The latest update to the SC tornado report archive included the record 2003 season. The last 3 seasons have been below normal (10 year mean) so I guess we were due for an above normal season.

Anyway here are some observations:
1. Notice more tornado's in the early parts of the year
2. April and May have been bigger tornado producers
3. Significant numbers of tornado's appear more common in spells [this has been written up in the literature but not to my satisfaction*]

* I guess my dis-satisfaction stems from the fact that I havent written anything yet. I want more meat and potatoes than the synoptic patterns. I got only one 4-panel of the synoptic environment. The paper is great for probability. I guess I would like to see more mesoscale details. The supplements to this paper show some more synoptics to give fair credit.

I need some mesoscale details on:
1. was surface moisture above normal? or at least spatially above normal coverage?
2. what was the contribution from local forcing mechanisms?
3. abnormal number of fronts, drylines, or outflow boundaries?
4. increased frequency of short wave troughs and thus enhanced vertical shear?
5. hodographs and soundings: was anything unique about these structures?

The need has arisen for sounding classification beyond indices. I really need to work on that...