A tale of two heatbursts

In the Hazardous Weather Testbed we have a ton of data coming in showing all kinds of unique phenomena and yesterdays models had a few strong heatbursts. This was expected given the very strong capping inversion and the likelihood that storms would initiate along the dryline and move into the capped region. As it turned out the storms in Texas/Oklahoma moved North and not Northeasterly thus putting the residents of western OK into jeopardy for Heatbursts. And indeed there quite a few damage reports from the high winds generated by the heatbursts.

Convection Initiation (lack thereof)

Yesterday everyone was talking about the cap. As if that is the only player in a complex tapestry of processes that drives whether we see any convective clouds. The SPC issued a slight risk for a situation last evening in Nebraska along a boundary where CI and thus tornadoes were possible.  A TOR watch was issued with the caveat that the best thermodynamics were out in the warm sector just slightly removed from the zone of better vertical shear located in a narrow corridor behind the front.

Norman tornado and broader implications

news9.com published a story today about Norman schools acquiring GPS radios to keep kids safe from severe weather. The story includes the quote that 24 minutes before the tornado, kids were released because all was clear to do so. The tornado formed at 3:59 PM putting release just after 3:30PM. At that time a severe thunderstorm warning was in effect for Norman issued at 3:14 PM.  Oddly though Norman was not mentioned in the original warning nor in the update at 3:38 PM. By 3:55 PM Norman was in a severe thunderstorm warning but for 17 minutes the mesocyclone, though weak and complex, was not a warned on feature.  At 3:59 PM a tornado warning was issued. [Please, kindly  correct me if I am wrong.]



There are many questions to ask:
1. Does every mesocyclone warrant a warning? This should include a discussion on the mesocyclone location relative to populated areas, relative to its vertical location and thus structure, and its strength. How did the specific characteristics of the mesocyclone influence the warning forecasters? I am NOT a warning forecaster, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn one time. I don't have the answer to these questions. Clearly more work is needed to understand these issues from various (science and service in the face of uncertainty) perspectives.

2. Why would schools let out with a severe thunderstorm warning in effect? What information and when would have contributed to make the decisions to either release or not release? These are time sensitive decisions and become complicated quick, mostly because you go from a situation involving a building to one involving an entire city. And more importantly, why purchase GPS radios for the buses? I hope they come with training. I certainly hope there will be someone on the other end of the radio helping bus drivers steer clear of potential storm hazards. But wouldn't it be wiser for the schools to secure dedicated personnel to monitor severe weather situations so they don't release into an existing warning? I am all for being prepared if there is a surprise (the probability of a surprise is much less than than it used to be).


The decision was made quite quickly to solve the problem with technology. It would appear we have a significant opportunity for social science research to understand a very specific situation in the warning process. And I am going to go out on a limb and say that its a bit soon to say we have a greater understanding of the entire situation from all relevant perspectives.

Not having a significant social science presence to rapidly assess this situation is disappointing. It would be par with an organization like the NTSB. Investigate the whole situation, assess ways to make the system better, to make the components better, and ultimately provide better service. By not having a system in place to do this we are losing valuable feedback on the process. But as everyone says, "in austere budgetary times", it is difficult to do so.

Well,  the NWS didnt do a service assessment for 2 March which was a big event and would have been costly. Other notable days with notable tornadoes include: 4/3 , 3/23, and 2/28. And probably others. All stick out to me as missed opportunities to learn from impacted communities. I am optimistic about the Weather Ready Nation initiative. I know people are passionate about solving problems. We must also be passionate about identifying them and having the courage of our convictions to keep after this important aspect of bridging science and service.

Predictability

I was reading the story of the toddler who was thrown from her family into a field, flung by the tornado in Indiana. A truly tragic story on so many different levels. The family of 5 chose to seek the best possible shelter they could. Their options were fairly limited, however.

It needs to be well known that a lot of fatalities occur in mobile homes. As Brooks and Doswell (2002) have noted mobile home deaths in tornadoes are much, much higher than deaths in permanent structures. It doesn't much matter what kind of mobile home as far as I am aware. They simply cannot withstand the forces at work in any tornado let alone violent, strong tornadoes.

Does your mobile home weigh 1 million pounds? I would bet you answered No. Well the EF5 tornado that hit El Reno in Oklahoma on 24 May threw ... read that again... threw a 1 million pound oil well drilling platform. The tornado that hit this young family was an EF4.

Improving the science of forecasting tornadoes can not solve all of the issues. We may not ever be able to tell you with 100 percent certainty that your house will be hit by a violent tornado at 1:42 pm. But it is easy to say that your survival chances in any mobile home are significantly reduced. That is the one thing that is predictable.

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/03/05/us/indiana-tornado-girl/?hpt=us_c1

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/essays/mobilehome.html

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cts=1330998875843&ved=0CEwQFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.consumersunion.org%2Fpdf%2Fmh%2FTornado.pdf&ei=HW5VT77zF-jisQLD64TwBQ&usg=AFQjCNEaVQAvFxabrlYgimacbeIFULPDbg

http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2011/12/alabama_tornadoes_mobile_home.html

The information is out there. And it needs to get to the right ears, or eyes.