Hurricane Matthew

Been testing out some concepts on hurricane Matthew over the last few weeks.

Value of certainty

So you like to look at 120h deterministic forecasts from your favorite model. GOOD FOR YOU!
My favorites dont go out that far. But when MPAS went out to Day 5 they were fun to look at it. Not just for the immediate future forecast but for the future of forecasting.

Work in progress

Who is responsible? {spoiler alert: We all are.}

Is that really THE question?

HWT EFP 2015 & recent past

The 2015 HWT Experimental Forecast Program just ended. We didnt have much opportunity to wander the country like we did in the quiet year of 2014, but it looked amazingly like 2013. Here is a brief comparison: