I have been thinking about severe weather for my work. I have always been curious about supercells because the characteristics I have observed have been so varied. Everything from the cloud structure and radar appearance to the location of tornado (or tornado's).
What I find even more interesting is that they tend to evolve rapidly. They evolve because of a changing environment (vertical wind shear, CAPE, moisture and moisture depth). But there are also those weird days, where in a similar environment, they develop differently. In a few cases I would surmise this has occurred because some boundary has been influencing the storms.
But a paper I read hinted that there are two types of these supercells distinguished by front vs rear precipitation relative to the updraft. There are some solid objections to this line inquiry based on the known and documented differences between so-called classic supercells and Low precipitation supercell tornado threats. However, a taxonomy is only useful if the storms have a certain structure and that structure leads to some predictable behavior.
While a taxonomy appears to be worthwhile to describe these varied characteristics, what are we really trying to achieve with it?
1. Operational radar recognition of the supercell and tornado threat.
2. A conceptual model of these storm types, including their life cycle evolution.
3. Explain why some supercells produce tornado's and why some do not; why some produce many and others produce 1; why some have a predictable location of tornado occurrence and others have multiple.
4. Address: Why do tornadic supercells differ so little from non-tornadic supercells?
These challenging questions are why, once again, the VORTEX2 field project will be operating in the Great Plains this year. Hopefully a new round of data collection will offer some insights into these fascinating and destructive storms.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Journalism and Science
I read Miles O'Brien testimony involving NASA's budget cut:
http://trueslant.com/milesobrien/2010/02/24/to-the-moon-i-think-not-alice/
I watched the Hawaii tsunami coverage on CNN.
What do they have in common?
In the former, Miles criticizes the major media outlets for dropping their actual science journalists. He says quite clearly that "the reporters are not well informed". He did not say the science journalists. he said reporters. People whose sole job is either researching and reporting, or investigating and reporting (i.e. communicating). The result, he says, is that the message is being lost. I would argue that even the sense of excitement, passion, and love of all things science is being lost as well. I follow Miles because he has these qualities. I watch him on spaceflightnow.com , I read his FB status updates, and read his blog. It oozes with a passion for science and he has a great way with words. I can read his writing and in my head I hear his voice with his inflections.
On the air today, with regard to the latter, I had to hear Rick Sanchez (whom I am biased against already for much different reasons), basically say: Hold on Dr. Scientist, don't explain this to me ... just answer my question. Which basically, in my humble opinion, criticized the smart scientist not for speaking in science terms ... but more so for speaking in laymen science terms. Thankfully CNN didnt continue with that crap and rather cut away to local affiliates coverage. There was a communication divide and it was WIDE as it was DEEP.
In much the same vein, The foxnews reporting on everything -gate, has cornered the market on conspiracy. Especially on Climate. They have a winning formula.
I will break it down:
1. Introduce climate change information (whether it be a simple fact or a person involved).
2. cast some doubt on said information (legitimate or not).
3. associate people with that doubt and tie them to someone somewhere who may have done something wrong (ignoring facts as they go).
4. cite climate sceptics as truth or use the glenn beck-ism "we are just asking questions here".
5. package this up as climate change doesn't exist.
They succeed because the science message isn't being communicated well. Climate has no PR machine. We have journals, technical reports, and atmospheric science bodies (the IPCC, AMS, AGU, NASA, etc.). These bodies deliver solid messages, but they can not compete with a 24 hour news org on the attack.
It just seems daunting. On the one hand we need science journalists (actual specialized folks who have passion, knowledge in science, and communicate well) to fill the void. This requires that major media outlets invest, and lets face it, the reason they cut these people was because they are bleeding.
We need better science teachers in our schools. Not just high school. Middle school and elementary schools too. And not just people who specialize in education. Again we need that passion and knowledge there too. Better teachers bring better content. This is a long shot because there just isn't the money to actually pay teachers with a Masters degree and worse a Masters may be detrimental to getting hired in the first place.
Some things need to change around here. And it would seem fitting that the people who can save us ...our young scientists who wait 3-5 years for permanent positions...are perfect to fill the gap. The problems are... the gap in pay, the student loans, the penalty for not publishing ... not worth it.
How sad is that?
http://trueslant.com/milesobrien/2010/02/24/to-the-moon-i-think-not-alice/
I watched the Hawaii tsunami coverage on CNN.
What do they have in common?
In the former, Miles criticizes the major media outlets for dropping their actual science journalists. He says quite clearly that "the reporters are not well informed". He did not say the science journalists. he said reporters. People whose sole job is either researching and reporting, or investigating and reporting (i.e. communicating). The result, he says, is that the message is being lost. I would argue that even the sense of excitement, passion, and love of all things science is being lost as well. I follow Miles because he has these qualities. I watch him on spaceflightnow.com , I read his FB status updates, and read his blog. It oozes with a passion for science and he has a great way with words. I can read his writing and in my head I hear his voice with his inflections.
On the air today, with regard to the latter, I had to hear Rick Sanchez (whom I am biased against already for much different reasons), basically say: Hold on Dr. Scientist, don't explain this to me ... just answer my question. Which basically, in my humble opinion, criticized the smart scientist not for speaking in science terms ... but more so for speaking in laymen science terms. Thankfully CNN didnt continue with that crap and rather cut away to local affiliates coverage. There was a communication divide and it was WIDE as it was DEEP.
In much the same vein, The foxnews reporting on everything -gate, has cornered the market on conspiracy. Especially on Climate. They have a winning formula.
I will break it down:
1. Introduce climate change information (whether it be a simple fact or a person involved).
2. cast some doubt on said information (legitimate or not).
3. associate people with that doubt and tie them to someone somewhere who may have done something wrong (ignoring facts as they go).
4. cite climate sceptics as truth or use the glenn beck-ism "we are just asking questions here".
5. package this up as climate change doesn't exist.
They succeed because the science message isn't being communicated well. Climate has no PR machine. We have journals, technical reports, and atmospheric science bodies (the IPCC, AMS, AGU, NASA, etc.). These bodies deliver solid messages, but they can not compete with a 24 hour news org on the attack.
It just seems daunting. On the one hand we need science journalists (actual specialized folks who have passion, knowledge in science, and communicate well) to fill the void. This requires that major media outlets invest, and lets face it, the reason they cut these people was because they are bleeding.
We need better science teachers in our schools. Not just high school. Middle school and elementary schools too. And not just people who specialize in education. Again we need that passion and knowledge there too. Better teachers bring better content. This is a long shot because there just isn't the money to actually pay teachers with a Masters degree and worse a Masters may be detrimental to getting hired in the first place.
Some things need to change around here. And it would seem fitting that the people who can save us ...our young scientists who wait 3-5 years for permanent positions...are perfect to fill the gap. The problems are... the gap in pay, the student loans, the penalty for not publishing ... not worth it.
How sad is that?
Saturday, December 12, 2009
Interesting quote
I heard a quote and it jumped out at me, partly because I have a similar philosophy basedon seemingly random yet intricate principles. The quote was something like ... 'believe in free-will and destiny'.
Destiny to me can be summed up via mathematics. There are some problems, like integration of a circle or circuit, where no matter which direction you choose, you end up with the same answer ...it leads you to the same place (the assumption being you know how to solve this problem!)
The other concept is that of initial value problems, where the initial state largely determines the outcome given a certain set of physical laws. While the laws may not change, the initial condition can thus influence the outcome. Naturally, destiny can thus be thought of as a positive or a negative, given your initial circumstances.
My view makes this quote more understandable: "There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path". The struggles we have in life can always be boiled down to this. We might know what to do, but we still have to do it. Likewise, it is important to know what your doing when you are doing it (even if we don't understand all choices we made to get here).
Destiny to me can be summed up via mathematics. There are some problems, like integration of a circle or circuit, where no matter which direction you choose, you end up with the same answer ...it leads you to the same place (the assumption being you know how to solve this problem!)
The other concept is that of initial value problems, where the initial state largely determines the outcome given a certain set of physical laws. While the laws may not change, the initial condition can thus influence the outcome. Naturally, destiny can thus be thought of as a positive or a negative, given your initial circumstances.
My view makes this quote more understandable: "There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path". The struggles we have in life can always be boiled down to this. We might know what to do, but we still have to do it. Likewise, it is important to know what your doing when you are doing it (even if we don't understand all choices we made to get here).
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Climate change hodgepodge
Lets be clear about a few things:
1. Projection is not the same thing as Prediction. Coupled global climate models used in the IPCC AR4 are used for projections. They start from a climatological state of the "current" climate. They do not initialize the model with the current state of the ocean.
2. From ice core data, CO2 concentrations have varied 100 ppm (from sub 200 to sub 300) over the last 400,000 years! By 2050, in a business as usual scenario the projection is for CO2 to climb to 450, and by 2100 achieve 950 ppm.
3. Temperature responds largely to solar increase in first 800 years and combination of solar/GHG the remaining thousands of years.
4. The anthropogenic forcing change is 1-2 W/m2 and is roughly equal in magnitude to the solar forcing change (solar variability is roughly 1.6 W/m2).
5. If the sun (increase in shortwave forcing) were largely responsible for the recent observed warming, the whole atmosphere should be warming. Tropospheric temperatures aloft have been in decline for the last 35 years while surface temperatures have been warming.
6. GCMs project that GHG forcing is more significant in the currnt climate than solar variability.
7. Even in a warming scenario, it is still possible to have a neutral or negative temperature trend during a decade.
So, let us assume that warming happens. What is the big deal?
A. It is likely that food production area's will shift due to changing temperature and precipitation. This is possible over the Great Plains even if the warming isn't extreme. China could also be potentially vulnerable to this changing climate. We already know that Africa has experienced some changes like this leading to long droughts, shortfalls of food, and revolution.
B. Some other changes could be earlier snow melt combined with either less or more snowfall over the Cascade or Rocky mountains. The snowfall in the west in winter provides water during the summer when it melts. Changing this time of snowmelt may leave these vulnerable areas without water later in the summer.
So, it is for these reasons, these local reasons that scientists communicate the impacts early. It takes time to adapt to these types of changes and mitigation can only help in the short term. Longer term its all about adaptation largely based on economics.
We all have to separate the science and opinion from this issue. There are scientific facts. They are not subject to opinion without evidence via the scientific method. Although it is in the theory stage, Idon't hear much politicized discussion questioning the speed of light
1. Projection is not the same thing as Prediction. Coupled global climate models used in the IPCC AR4 are used for projections. They start from a climatological state of the "current" climate. They do not initialize the model with the current state of the ocean.
2. From ice core data, CO2 concentrations have varied 100 ppm (from sub 200 to sub 300) over the last 400,000 years! By 2050, in a business as usual scenario the projection is for CO2 to climb to 450, and by 2100 achieve 950 ppm.
3. Temperature responds largely to solar increase in first 800 years and combination of solar/GHG the remaining thousands of years.
4. The anthropogenic forcing change is 1-2 W/m2 and is roughly equal in magnitude to the solar forcing change (solar variability is roughly 1.6 W/m2).
5. If the sun (increase in shortwave forcing) were largely responsible for the recent observed warming, the whole atmosphere should be warming. Tropospheric temperatures aloft have been in decline for the last 35 years while surface temperatures have been warming.
6. GCMs project that GHG forcing is more significant in the currnt climate than solar variability.
7. Even in a warming scenario, it is still possible to have a neutral or negative temperature trend during a decade.
So, let us assume that warming happens. What is the big deal?
A. It is likely that food production area's will shift due to changing temperature and precipitation. This is possible over the Great Plains even if the warming isn't extreme. China could also be potentially vulnerable to this changing climate. We already know that Africa has experienced some changes like this leading to long droughts, shortfalls of food, and revolution.
B. Some other changes could be earlier snow melt combined with either less or more snowfall over the Cascade or Rocky mountains. The snowfall in the west in winter provides water during the summer when it melts. Changing this time of snowmelt may leave these vulnerable areas without water later in the summer.
So, it is for these reasons, these local reasons that scientists communicate the impacts early. It takes time to adapt to these types of changes and mitigation can only help in the short term. Longer term its all about adaptation largely based on economics.
We all have to separate the science and opinion from this issue. There are scientific facts. They are not subject to opinion without evidence via the scientific method. Although it is in the theory stage, Idon't hear much politicized discussion questioning the speed of light
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