Sensitivity and the poor forecasts that follow

I want to ask a different question. Why are we having these struggles in forecasting? Why are these models so sensitive as to make poor forecasts?

Hurricane Matthew

Been testing out some concepts on hurricane Matthew over the last few weeks.

Value of certainty

So you like to look at 120h deterministic forecasts from your favorite model. GOOD FOR YOU!
My favorites dont go out that far. But when MPAS went out to Day 5 they were fun to look at it. Not just for the immediate future forecast but for the future of forecasting.